February 2008 Archive
Archive Project started on February 5th, 2008 Due this this fact not all of February 2008 can be obtained
February 29th, 2008
Utah Jazz (+3) vs. New Orleans Hornets (-3)
The Utah Jazz head to New Orleans to take on the Hornets. The Jazz are coming off an emotional victory at home over the Pistons while the Hornets beat the Suns handedly in their last outing. Both teams are in the middle of a tight conference race. Both teams score in the triple digits so the deciding factor of this game will be which team can come out and play some defense. You would have to give the nod to the Hornets as they are allowing just under 95 points a game good for 5th in the league. Utah away from home is 12-18 ATS while the Hornets are 16-13 ATS at home. With both teams fight for higher seeds in the conference race this is going to be a close game. With the game being close you have to take the better defensive team as that along with home court advantage will be the slight edge the Hornets need to win.
LOCK = New Orleans Hornets (-3)
-Win- New Orleans 98-110
February 28th, 2008
UCLA Bruins (-7) vs. Arizona State Sun Devils (+7)
The 24-3 UCLA Bruins are 17-8-1 against the spread this season and an impressive 7-1 against the spread this year on the road. Offensively UCLA on the road averages 70.5 points per game which ranks 81st in NCAA play. The Bruins have one of the better road defenses in the country letting their opponents score just 61.5 points per game ranking 11th overall. On average the Bruins are beating their opponents by 16.6 points per game.
The 17-9 Arizona State Sun Devils are 12-10 against the spread overall this season and at home the Sun Devils are 8-4 against the spread. Offensively Arizona at home is averaging 71.6 points per game which ranks 189th in the league. The Sun Devils have a pretty good home defense allowing their opponents 56.2 points per game which ranks 15th overall in NCAA play. These two teams met January 31st with the Bruins putting a hurting on the Sun Devils winning 84-51. Going well over the 13 point spread and the game went Over the posted 128. The Bruins have a great road record when it comes to covering the spread and showed that they out match the Sun Devils at every position. Statistically UCLA wins every category against the Sun Devils except for 3 pointer averaged a game. Statistics and season history shows that the Bruins are a no brainer today on the road.
LOCK = UCLA (-7)
-Win- UCLA 70-49
February 27th, 2008
Arkansas Razorbacks (+1) vs. Alabama Crimson Time (-1)
The Arkansas Razorbacks travel to Coleman Coliseum to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide. Arkansas is coming off a tough loss to Kentucky but Alabama is in major skid losing 4 of their last five failing to cover in each of those losses. Alabama is a one dimensional team. While they average 75.5 points a game thy allow 72.81 points a game on defense. And believe it or not they play even worse defense at home giving up 72.89 a game. Arkansas however has shown they can put up points away from home averaging 71.63 for a respectable 69th in the country while they only give up 65.5 points a game. In a tight SEC match up you have to take the team that can play at least a little defense. And since Nick Saben couldn’t even teach this Bama team how to play D you have to take Arkansas in this match up.
LOCK = Arkansas (+1)
-Loss- Alabama 56-59
February 26th, 2008
Phoenix Suns (-9) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (+9)
The new look Suns ride into Memphis facing a team who has not won in their last 5 games and are 1-9 in their last 10. In the midst of their current 5 game skid, they are 1-4 against the spread, covering only one time by a half of point in that stretch. Memphis is horrible this year, on the home, on the road, anywhere they play. Neither team plays particularly well on the defensive side of the floor so an over bet here might not be too risky, though the -9 seems much more safe. Phoenix seems to be too tough this year for the Grizzlies, the NBA's second worst record, to stay within double digits. Finally, Memphis is 12-17 ATS at home while Phoenix is a solid 14-12 ATS on the road. Take the Suns minus 9.
LOCK = Phoenix Suns (-9)
-Win- Phoenix 127-113
February 25th, 2008
Texas Longhorns (+2) vs. Kansas State Wildcats (-2)
The Texas Longhorns head to Bramlage Coliseum to take on the Kansas State Wildcats. The longhorns are the hot team right now they have won their last 7 games and are 5-0 against the spread in their last 5. They are also coming off two dominant victories over Oklahoma by 17 and Texas A&M by 27. Kansas State on the other hand is slumping as they have lost 3 of their last 4 failing to cover in each of those losses. Look for this to be a shootout as Texas is averaging 76.6 points a game and K-State over 80. The difference will be Texas’s ability to clamp down on defense as they hold opponents 64.1 points per game. The Wildcats struggle to stop any team on defense as the give up 68 a points a game which ranks them at a very pedestrian 154. Even though this will be a high scoring affair the team that steps up on D will have the edge. You have to give the nod to Texas as they continue to roll.
LOCK = Texas Longhorns (+2)
-Win- Texas 74-65
February 24th, 2008
Detroit Pistons (+2) vs. Phoenix Suns (-2)
The Detroit Pistons come into this Sunday afternoon game 1-7 against the spread in their last 8 road games. Detroit though has had good success playing the Suns they are 5-0 against the spread at Phoenix. Detroit has an average offense putting up 96.7 points on the road this season which ranks 13th overall in the NBA. Defensively the Pistons have the second best road defense in the league letting their opponents score on average 93.4 points per game. The Phoenix Suns are 4-1 straight up in their last five but are just 2-5-1 against the spread in their last eight home games. Phoenix offensively is the second best home offense in the league averaging 111.5 points per game. Defense is not what the Phoenix Suns do very well, they are allowing their opponents to score 103.8 points per game which ranks 27th overall in the league. The total has gone Under in 5 of the last 7 games when Detroit plays the Suns on the road. The Suns can still put up points pretty fast but with the insertion of Shaq in the lineup it slows their offense down at times. Even last nights game between Boston and Phoenix that game ended up being 85-77 final with the Celtics holding the Suns under 90. The Under is set at 199 for this game and statistically this is the best bet to make. With Detroit having one of the best defenses in the NBA and Phoenix slowing down their offense a touch the Under is the best bet here.
LOCK = Under 199
-Loss- Total 202
February 23rd, 2008
Kansas Jayhawks (-10) vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (+10)
Today the 24-2 Kansas Jayhawks enter Gallagher-Iba Arena to take on the 13-12 Oklahoma State Cowboys. This match-up is one sided from the beginning, with Kansas averaging 82 ppg and Oklahoma State only averaging 69 ppg. Although the last 8 times these two teams have meet they are both 4-4 ATS, Kansas is 6-2 SU and will continue to control Oklahoma State this year. This year the Kansas team is ranked 9th in overall scoring while the Oklahoma State Cowboys are only ranked 123rd in overall defense. This game will come down to Kansas' ability to score quickly, and they have provent that they can. Expect no less out of the Kansas Jayhawks in this game, this spread wont even be close.
LOCK = Kansas Jayhawks (-10)
-Loss- Oklahoma State 60-61
February 22nd, 2008
Denver Nuggets (-2) vs. Chicago Bulls (+2)
The Chicago Bulls come into tonight’s game as one of the trade deadline winners acquiring Drew Gooden, Larry Hughes and two young players....none of whom should play tonight against a Nuggets team that is averaging a ridiculous 107 points per game. Chicago will also be without Joe Smith and Ben Wallace per the three team trade that sent players in every direction. Player movement aside, the Bulls are only 9-16 at home against the spread this season. Look for this game to keep that trend going. The Bulls won’t enjoy their new acquisitions and will be without Wallace and Smith. An understaffed Bulls team will not be able to stick with the Nuggets who are 4-1 ATS against the Bulls. Too much Iverson and Mello for the Bulls to stick within two. Nuggets by a lot.
LOCK = Denver Nuggets (-2)
-Loss- Chicago Bulls 121-135
February 21th, 2008
Pittsburgh Panthers (+5) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-5)
Notre Dame plays host to Pittsburgh tonight at the Joyce Center. The Panthers come limping in after a terrible performance in their lopsided loss at Marquette. Notre Dame plays well at home. They are 14-0 at home this year which runs their current home win streak to 34 games. The Irish will look to push the tempo as they are averaging over 80 points a game. Pittsburgh has struggled on the road going 2-5 SU in their last 7 road games. Along with controlling the tempo Notre Dame has the advantage on the boards. At home they average over 40 rebounds a game. This Big East battle will be close late in the game but the Irish will pull away at the end and cover with late game free throws.
LOCK = Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-5)
-Win- Notre Dame 70-82
February 20th, 2008
Kansas State Wildcats (-3) vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers (+3)
The 18-4 Kansas State Wildcats will enter Bob Devaney Sports Center to take on the 14-9 Nebraska Cornhuskers. The Wildcats are 11-7 against the spread this year and on the road they are just 2-5 against the spread. In the Wildcats last 10 games they are 8-2 against the spread and 2-2 against the spread on the road. Offensively the Wildcats are averaging a high 80.8 points per game and on the road this season they are scoring just 73.4 points per game. Defensively the wildcats are allowing their opponents 66.9 points per game but on the road they allow a lot higher 77.3 points per game. On average the Wildcats are beating their opponents by 13.9 points per game. The Nebraska Cornhuskers are just 4-11 against the spread this season and at home they are just 3-5 against the spread. In their last 10 games the Cornhuskers are just 2-8 against the spread and 1-4 against the spread at home. Offensively the Cornhuskers are averaging 67.9 points per game and at home they are averaging 72.5 points per game. Defensively Nebraska is allowing their opponents a low 60.2 points per game and even lower at home average 56.7 points per game which ranks 24th overall in the league. The Wildcats are the far superior team in this match up and even though where concerned with the Cats away defense where not concerned with the outcome. The Cornhuskers have continually failed to cover the spread all season long and even though there getting points here they won’t be getting enough. Take the Cats in this one and let the soon to be freshmen of the year take them to victory.
LOCK = Kansas State (-3)
-Loss- Nebraska Cornhuskers 64-71
February 19th, 2008
Baylor Bears (+4) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (-4)
Tonight the 17-7 Baylor Bears will travel to the Lloyd Nobel Center to take on the 17-8 Oklahoma Sooners. These two teams have met once this season already resulting in an Oklahoma victory 77-71 at Baylor. Oklahoma has been playing good defense this year and we do not expect this to change. Oklahoma averages giving up only 60 ppg at home this year while they score 73 ppg. With Baylor being such an offensive team averaging 81 ppg on the season, Oklahoma will have to shut them down with strong defense like they did earlier this season, holding Baylor to 10 points under their average. Baylor has been horrible in defense on the road this year averaging 80 ppg earning the rank of 305th in the nation for road defense. Baylor is also 0-10 against Oklahoma in the last 10 meetings and Baylor has lost 4 out of their last 5 games. Baylor's struggle for solid defense and their dependency on the 3-pt jumper will cause them to loss to Oklahoma for the second time this year. This will be a close game, as Baylor does get hot and throws up points very quickly, but look for Oklahoma to control the tempo of this game with defense and come away with a big win.
LOCK = Oklahoma Sooners (-4)
-Loss- Oklahoma 91-92
February 18th, 2008
Georgetown (-5) vs. Providence (+5)
Alliteration aside, The Hoyas have hardly been playing like the top ten team they have been touted as all season. Despite that (and their lack luster 8-13 ATS record this season) the Hoyas will easily cover the 5 points they are laying. Without belaboring the point, Providence (though admittedly one of the Big East's best scoring teams) can not stop a high school squad from scoring allowing a horrendus 72 points per game. On the flip side, Georgetown is allowing their opponents to score only 53 points per game, close to the top nationally. Despite their recent offensive struggles, expect the Hoyas O to get on track against Proviences (the D was neglected for a reason) pourous defense. Lay the 5, take the win. Hoyas cover easily.
LOCK = Georgetown (-5)
-Win- Georgetown 68-58
February 17th, 2008
UCLA Bruins (-4) vs. USC Trojans (+4)
The #6 UCLA Bruins take on their cross-town rival the USC Trojans at the Galen Center. UCLA (21-3) looks to rebound from their shocking loss at Washington. The Bruins are strong on the road this year going 6-1 while covering in all six of those wins. And while this can hardly be considered a road game, the Bruins have proven they can win anywhere. UCLA averages just over 72 points a game on the road which trumps USC’s 67 and change. Look for this to be a physical game as the Bruins who are only giving up 58.5 points a game to rely heavily on their defense to control the tempo of the game. UCLA also has the advantage under the basket with Kevin Love leading the way they average over 33 boards a game. And with this being a rivalry game the Bruins will be looking to avenge their early season loss to the Trojans. UCLA gets back on track tonight with a big PAC 10 win.
LOCK = UCLA Bruins (-4)
-Win- UCLA Bruins 56-46
February 16th, 2008
University of Connecticut Huskies (-6) vs. South Florida Bulls (+6)
The 19-5 Connecticut Huskies will enter the Sun Dome to take on the 11-14 South Florida Bulls. The Huskies are 5-0-1 against the spread in their last 6 games and 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 road games. Connecticut has the 28th overall ranked offense in the league averaging 78.4 points per game. They are shooting 46% from the field and from the foul line this year they are averaging 70.9%. Defensively the Huskies are just average, giving up on average to their opponents 68.8 points per game. On average the Huskies are beating their opponents by 9.6 points per game. The South Florida Bulls are 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 games and are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 home games. The Bulls offensively are averaging 70.4 points per game which ranks a bad 153rd in the country. They are shooting 44.6% from the field and from the foul line they are averaging 64%. Defensively the Bulls are allowing their opponents 69.6 points per game and on average they are beating their opponents by .8 points per game. The Connecticut Huskies are on fire right now winning their last five straight games. On the other hand, South Florida had a big win against Syracuse but before that game they lost their last 4 straight. Uconn averages more points per game, plays better defense than the Bulls and have the hot hand therefore where going to have to give the nod to the Huskies.
LOCK = Connecticut (-6)
-Loss- Connecticut Huskies 74-73
February 15th, 2008
Pittsburgh Panthers (+4) vs. Marquette Golden Eagles (-4)
Tonight 19-5 Pittsburgh Panthers travel to the Bradley Center to take on the 17-6 Marquette Golden Eagles. Both of these teams are strong offensively, averaging from 76-78 ppg. Both temas have decent Field goal precentage right around 45% and can put up high numbers any game. The Pittsburgh panthers are 3-2 SU in their last 5 games losing at Connecticut by 7 points and 11 points at home against Rutgers. In Pittsburgh's last 6 games against Marquette they are 1-5 ATS. While Marquette is 5-1 ATS and a solid defensive team at home. Marquette averages scoring 79 ppg at home this season while giving up only 59 ppg at home. Marquette has a great home defense, being ranked 38th in the country, while Pittsburgh's road offense is ranked 148th in the country. This game should be a close match, but with Marquette averaging almost 10 steals and game and some great home defense this game should shift in Marquette's favor. Watch for this game to come down to free throws with Marquette shooting 71% thats not to bad.
LOCK = Marquette Golden Eagles (-4)
-Win- Marquette Golden Eagles 54-72
February 14th, 2008
Washington State (-11) vs. Oregon State(+11)
Oregon State is the worst team in the Pac-10 and they have a tough, daunting task taking the Washington State Cougars. Strangley enough, the 6-17 Beavers are only 11 point under dogs against a Washington State team that is 6-3 this season against the spread on the road. On the flip side, OSU (not the good one) is 3-9 ATS at home. Couple that with Washinton State averaging 66 points a game against Oregon State giving up 64 points a game this one seems too easy. Washington State scores in bunches and covers on the road this season and Oregon State can't stop anyone this year and does not stack up well against the spread at home. Take the Cougs, the points, and the win.
LOCK = Washington State (-11)
-Win- Washington State 70-57
February 13th, 2008
Kansas St. (-2) vs. Texas Tech (+2)
The Kansas State Wildcats head to United Sprint Arena to take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders. The Wildcats carry with them the nations #22 ranking and a record of 17-5 (7-1 in conference) which sets them alone atop the Big 12. While the Red Raiders have struggled in conference going 3-5 posting an overall record of 12-10. Texas Tech has been distracted of late with the coaching change and even if they were focused they don’t have the firepower to keep up with Kansas State who is averaging over 80 points a game which is good for 20th in the NCAA. The Wildcats are coming off of two blowout victories and will ride that momentum and continue to play well. This game will be close but K-State will pull away at the end. You don’t end up in first place of the Big 12 by accident.
LOCK = Kansas State (-2)
-Loss- Texas Tech 75-84
February 12th, 2008
Denver Nuggets (-6) vs. Miami Heat (+6)
The 31-19 Denver Nuggets will enter American Airlines Arena to take on the 9-41 Miami Heat. Denver is second in rebounds in the league at 45.0 and they give up the lowest free throw percentage in the league at 71.6%. Denver allows the second most three points made in the league at 7.6 per game and Denver has the third worst rebounds allowed in the league at 45.8. Denver on the road this season is 11-12 against the spread on the road this season as well as going 10-13 straight up away. On offense the Nuggets are averaging 106.7 points per game which ranks 4th overall in the NBA. Denver defensively is allowing their opponents 103.6 points per game and on average the Nuggets are beating their opponents by 3 points per game. The Miami Heat are the worst offensive team in the league averaging just 92.7 points per game. The Heat defensively are allowing their opponents 100.5 points per game and they are losing to their opponents on average by -7.8 points per game. Miami at home this season are 6-19 against the spread at home this year while being 5-20 straight up in the American Airlines Arena. The Heat is also the worst rebounding team in the league by averaging 38.2 per game. The Denver Nuggets are one of the leagues top offensive teams in the league while the Heat is the leagues worst. Even with the acquisition of Shawn Marion, the Heat will still have problems running at a high pace like the Nuggets do all game long. Defensively the Nuggets are giving up a lot of points per game but when playing the Heat and the worst offense in the league this stat shouldn’t bother you too much. The Heat has only won 9 games all year and we don’t expect that number to go up against a 31 win Nugget team.
LOCK = Denver Nuggets (-6)
-Loss- Denver Nuggets 114-113
February 11th, 2008
Kansas Jayhawks (-4) vs. Texas Longhorns (+4)
Tonight the 23-1 Kansas Jayhawks walk into the Frank Erwin Center to take on the 19-4 Texas Longhorns. With Kansas putting up an impressive 100 points in Saturdays match up against Baylor, there is no doubt that they have an amazingly quick offense. But Kansas also allowed Baylor to score 90 points, proving that their defense did not show up to that game. On the other hand Texas made an impressive come back against Iowa State on Saturday. The important numbers to look at in this game are Kansas's road stats vs. Texas's home stats. Kansas is 2-4-1 ATS on the road this year, while Texas is 5-4 ATS at home this year. Kansas averages 73 ppg on the road this year, while Texas averages giving up only 61 ppg at home. Texas on the other hand scores on average 80 ppg at home this year. In the past when these two teams have met both score on average 80 ppg, with Texas being 6-3 ATS in the last 9 meetings. This game should be no different, and with a close game we are picking the home court advantage and the points. Watch for this one to be down to the wire.
Lock = Texas Longhorns (+4)
-Win- Texas Longhorns 69-72
Los Angeles Lakers (-7) vs. Charlotte Bobcats (+7)
Tonight the 32-17 Los Angeles Lakers take on the 18-32 Charlotte Bobcats. This will be the Lakers 8th consecutive road game on a 9 game road stretch. In the last 7 games the Lakers have gone 5-2 on the road beating their opponents by an average of 12.2 ppg. This is a very impressive stat as well as the Lakers being 15-9-1 ATS on the road this year. The Lakers have also averaged 105.5 ppg on the road while Charlotte has averaged 97.5 ppg at home this year. While the Charlotte Bobcats won the last time these two teams met in Los Angeles, these two teams are no longer the same. Charlotte has been riddled with injury in the forward position, having three guys on the injury report. Gerald Wallace is currently on a day-to-day basis with a sore foot, which means he will most likely see the court, but will be struggling with his sore foot. In this game the smart choice is to lay the seven and take the Lakers, they have been good to us in the past and will continue to bring in the wins.
Lock = Los Angeles Lakers (-7)
-Win- Los Angeles Lakers 106-97
February 10th, 2008
San Antonio Spurs (+1) vs. Boston Celtics (-1)
The Boston Celtics come into today’s game missing arguably their most important player in Kevin Garnet. Ray Allen, Paul Piece and the rest of the Celtics have done all right without Garnett but Friday’s nail biter with lowly Minnesota showed how vulnerable the boys from Beantown are without KG. The Celtics are only favored in this game by 1 point at home against the defending champs, so its essentially a pick em here. Despite being without Tony Parker, the Spurs should be just fine in this game. I like the fact that Boston is only 7-17-1 against the spread against the Spurs in the last 25 times these teams have matched up. San Antonio is a lowly 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games but no KG, Kendrick Perkins, or Scott Pollard leaves the Celtics with no real big body in the middle to slow the Big Fundamental Tim Duncan. Injuries to big men are going to be too much for the Celtics to overcome. Take the point and the Spurs.
Lock = San Antonio Spurs (+1)
-Loss- Boston Celtics 90-98
February 9th, 2008
Texas A&M Aggies (-1) vs. Missouri Tigers (+1)
The Aggies hit the road in yet another Big 12 showdown. This time at Mizzou Arena to take on the Tigers. The Tigers have been hovering around .500 all year long they are currently 13-10 after getting embarrassed by the Jayhawks on Monday. Mizzu is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games and have only managed to win 2 of their last 7. A&M however, is a team headed in the opposite direction. They have won 4 in a row in conference play covering in each of those games. And they have owned Missouri as of late going 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings. While Missouri averages more points their defense is suspect to say the least as they are giving up over 70 points a game. Look for the Aggies to control the tempo of the game and grind out another ever important conference road win.
Lock = Texas A&M Aggies (-1)
-Win- Texas A&M Aggies 77-69
February 8th, 2008
Boston Celtics (-6) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (+6)
The 37-9 Boston Celtics will head into the Target Center to take on the 10-37 Minnesota Timberwolves. The Celtics are 14-6-1 against the spread on the road this season and have gone 16-5 straight up on away. Boston is averaging 99.8 points per game which ranks 12th overall in the NBA and defensively they are allowing their opponents a league low 89 points per game. On average this season Boston is beating their opponents on average by 10.8 points per game. Minnesota at home this season is 10-12-1 against the spread and they are 8-15 straight up while playing in the Target Center. Offensively the Timberwolves are averaging 93.8 points per game which ranks 28th overall in the NBA and defensively they are allowing their opponents a poor 101.1 points per game which ranks 23rd in the league. Minnesota this season on average is losing to their opponents by 7.3 points per game. The Celtics are arguable the best team in the Eastern Conference this season. Even heading into tonight’s game without Kevin Garnett they are still a far better team than Minnesota. The Celtics have a great road record and have also had good success covering the spread on the road this year. Boston wins every statistical category in the match up between these two except offensive rebounds. The Celtics are the easy pick in this game, they should have no problem covering the spread against a Timberwolves squad whom have only won 8 games at home all season long.
Lock = Boston Celtics (-6)
-Loss- Boston 88-86
February 7th, 2008
Indiana Hoosiers (-1) vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (+1)
Indiana enters Assembly Hall with an overall record of 18-3 and are 4-2 against the spread on the road this season. Offensively the Hoosiers are averaging 77 points per game which ranks them 48th in the nation and defensively they are allowing their opponents on average 62.1 points per game ranking 43rd in the NCAA. The Fighting Illini come into this Big Ten game with an overall record of 10-13 and at home have been 6-9 against the spread. Offensively the Illini are averaging a poor 65.1 points per game which ranks 253rd in the country while defensively they allow their opponents 61.7 points per game which ranks 39th. Both teams have pretty solid defenses but Indiana blows Illinios out of the water offensively. Illinois has played Indiana well in the past but the tables have turned this season and Indiana is just better than Illinios in almost every statistical category. The Fighting Illini will have their hands full tonight and wont be able to keep up offensively with Indiana. This spread is way to low and Indiana should have no problem going into Assembly Hall and coming out with a big win.
Lock = Indiana Hoosiers(-1)
-Win- 83-79 2OT
February 6th, 2008
Los Angeles Lakers (-3) vs. Atlanta Hawks (+3)
The Lakers have been good to us thus far. In two picks involving the Lakers, both were winners. Here comes number 3. The Lakers are only 3 point favorites on the road against the Atlanta Falcons, a game they will cover easily. The Hawks were one of the league's early surprises this season, but reality has set in. The Hawks are 6-11 since the turn of the New Year. Admittedly they are 5-3 at home since 1\1\2008 but only 2 of those wins have come against winning teams. The Lakers are a modest 13-9 on the road this year while the Hawks are an equally unimpressive 14-9 at home, so its tough to say where to look for the Lakers to cover 3. I'll stick with the fact that in their last 10 wins, the Lakers are averaging over 110 points per game while the Hawks have been unable to stop anyone since the turn of the year. They have allowed 6 100 plus points game while allowing 90 or more in every game but 5. The Lakers have been scoring a ton without a legit big man, tomorrow they get to use their newly acquired weapon. 3 points seems like fish in a barrel here.
Lock = Los Angeles Lakers (-3)
-Loss- Atlanta 95-98
Duke Blue Devils (+4) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (-4)
The Duke Blue Devils enter the Dean Smith Center tonight with an overall record of 19-1 and ranked 2nd in the NCAA. Duke has the #3 ranked offense (85.7 ppg) and has been beating their opponents by 19.8 points per game. In their last 7 games Duke is 6-0-1 against the spread and when playing North Carolina on the road they are 1-4 against the spread in their last five. The Tar Heels have an overall record of 21-1 and ranked 3rd overall in the NCAA. The Tar Heels have the 2nd ranked overall offense in the league averaging 91.1 points per game and are beating their opponents by 19.3 points per game. North Carolina is 4-2 against the spread in their last six and are 4-1 against the spread in their last five against Duke. The two biggest factors that will decide tonight’s match up in Chapel Hill are defense and the absence of Ty Lawson. Defensively Duke is the better team, giving up 66 points per game against them while North Carolina allows their opponents 71.8 points per game. Offensively these teams are so close that defense will play the key role in who wins tonight’s game. With Ty Lawson most likely not playing in tonight’s game, North Carolina’s offense will not be nearly the same With a healthy Lawson, the Tar Heels can run with their typical zeal and better handle the Blue Devils second ranked perimeter pressure. Duke is the healthier team and they will smell the blood in the water with Lawson out. These teams are so evenly matched that with just one man out the pendulum will swing a bit toward Duke. Chapel Hill is a very tough place to play but the Blue Devils have played their many times and wont be intimidated. We like Duke’s chances tonight in Chapel Hill.
LOCK = Duke (+4)
-Win- Duke 89-78
Wisconsin Badgers (-7) vs. Iowa Hawkeye’s (+7)
The Wisconsin Badgers will roll into Carver-Hawkeye Arena on a two game winning steak and an overall record of 18-3. Wisconsin has the nations #1 ranked defense only allowing their opponents 54.1 points per game. In their last eight games on the road against Iowa the Badgers where 6-2 against the spread. Iowa comes into this Big Ten match up with an overall record of 11-12. Iowa has the nations 6th ranked defense allowing their opponents just 57.3 points per game. Iowa has only won one game in their last ten games against the Badgers. Wisconsin’s defense has been up believable the last two games allowing Minnesota just 47 points and Indiana a low 49. Expect the Badgers to keep the pressure on Iowa all game tonight, Iowa hasn’t played a team with a defense of this magnitude all season long and most likely will not respond well.
LOCK = Wisconsin (-7)
-loss- Wisconsin 60-54
February 5th, 2008
Texas A&M Aggies (-6) vs. Iowa State Cyclones(+6)
Texas A&M heads the Hilton Coliseum with the hot hand. Ever since they lost to Baylor in 5 overtimes they have re-grouped and are playing like the team that was ranked in the earlier part of the season. They dominated Texas on Wednesday and followed that up with a strong victory against Oklahoma. The Aggies are 18-4 in their last 22 while covering in 15 of those games. Iowa State in the meantime is searching for answers after an inexcusable loss to Nebraska. The Cyclones are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against A&M. With the Aggies averaging over 75 points a game look for the Cyclones to struggle to keep up. Take A&M to cover as they continue to roll.
Lock = Texas A&M Aggies (-6)
-Win- Texas A&M Aggies 69-51